Puzzle or Mystery?
By Michaela
January 16, 2007Malcolm Gladwell, author of such provocative books as Blink and The Tipping Point, recently wrote in The New Yorker (January 8, 2007) about the Enron case. It’s a fascinating article about responsibility and the nature of knowing. One point he makes, which I think has great appeal in our world, is to distinguish between a “puzzle” and a “mystery.”
A puzzle, he argues, is a problem where the solution is knowable if you can just find the right pieces of information. The question of whether Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction (WMD) prior to the invasion is a classic example of a puzzle. Intelligence gathering could potentially have provided an answer to this question.
A mystery, in contrast, is a problem where there may be plenty of facts. The issue is not lack of information, but making sense of the information you have. An example would be the question of whether Saddam intended to reconstitute his WMD program.
In the solution of complex problems, many wrong turns are taken because of a misunderstanding — is this a puzzle or a mystery? I started applying this concept to the nonprofit sector and found it helpful.
For example, environmental scans done as part of a strategic planning process are often looking for the answer to questions such as: “will the need for our services increase and will more people want what we have to offer?” The first part of this question is a puzzle. Need can be predicted based on data that may be more or less available. If you run a nursing home, demographics tell you that more people will need this type of service in the coming years, as the boomers age. Fact-finding research will get you the answers to this question.
The second part of the question–what impact the increased need will have on demand for the specific programs you offer–is more of a mystery. It depends on who you ask, the perceived quality of your services, and a host of subjective variables, such as user experience and reputation. Fact-finding will not reveal the answer. Instead you will have to assemble a picture of the future based on many suppositions. In the end it will be an educated guess.
So, the next time you are faced with a big question, first ask yourself: Is this a puzzle or a mystery? Then, devise your strategy for finding an answer accordingly.
Tags: nonprofit
January 17th, 2007 at 6:48 am
As a practical application… when looking at a possible nonprofit consolidation we can make projections as to what the financial picture will look like in the future… this includes elements of a puzzle, what specific cost savings will we create, but also elements of a mystery, will the world really continue to want or need our services in the future. Board members often feel that we should definitively answer both questions with authority. I find this particularly true in the arts where changing usage patterns (i.e. the slow demise of subscriptions) makes meaningful projections all the more a “mystery.” Do you feel that defining what elements are part of a puzzle and which are a mystery will help Boards move forward? Won’t the admission of so much mystery paralyze the decision making process.